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Results for Winthrop/ETV Poll Survey of Likely Voters in SC, NC & VA
Shows Statistical Dead Heat for Obama/McCain in NC and VA
With McCain Winning SC by 20 Points

Overwhelming Number in VA & NC Say It’s Obama Who Understands Their Lives
Almost 40% of White Women in VA Less Likely to Vote McCain Because of Palin
Over 50% Give Thumbs-Down to Public Funds Saving Private Companies
Six-in-10 Say History Will Judge Geo. W. Bush’s Presidency a Failure

For Immediate Release
October 23, 2008

Columbia SC…The results of the latest Winthrop/ETV Poll, conducted among likely voters in NC, VA and SC between September 28 and October 19, are in.

The results will be released exclusively during the Thursday, Oct. 23 edition of South Carolina ETV’s The Big Picture”“ program at 7:30 p.m. ET. ETV is the public television and radio network in South Carolina.

The data represent responses from 2026 individual likely voters from South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia gathered between September 28 and October 19, 2008. These include:

• 617 respondents from SC (margin of error +/- 3.94% at the 95% confidence level)



• 744 respondents from NC (margin of error +/- 3.59% at the 95% confidence level)



• 665 respondents from VA (margin of error +/- 3.8% at the 95% confidence level)

As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error. For the purpose of these results, "Working Class" is defined as a respondent who reported $50,000 or less total annual household income.

Questions Regarding Length of Time in Field
While this is a long time for a political survey to be in the field, we feel it does two things:

1. Increase the "representativeness" of the sample without weighting



2. Smoothes the erratic jumps and dips seen when overnight polls are aggregated

First, most polls done in a few days call during the daytime and must use a complicated weighting scheme for the data. For example, retirees and stay-at-home moms are more likely to be reached during the day and this over-sampling must be accounted for in the final results. The Social & Behavioral Research Lab (SBRL) at Winthrop University calls only on weekday evenings, and during the day and evenings on weekends. This allows respondents to be randomly sampled in their proper proportions without additional weighting. While the trade off between speed of data gathering and un-weighted accuracy of the sample is unacceptable to some, un-weighted sample quality holds a supreme position for us since this data will be used for academic research after the conclusion of the election.

Second, a longer time in the field has a "smoothing effect" on the data. Trends are more fluid compared to the choppy ups and downs seen in many quick snapshot polls. However, spending too long in the field can mask significant shifts. The consumer of this data should use these results to paint a fuller picture of trends seen from the multitude of quick snapshot polls; she or he should not assume these results supplant any other methodologically sound data.

Questions regarding the definition of "Likely Voter"
Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in each state. The interviewer asked for the selected registered voter by name and then verbally confirmed their name and current registration status. After determining that we had the correct individual and that they were, in fact, still registered in the state where they lived (and were called), we screened the respondents using an additional question to determine likelihood of voting. Only those currently registered voters who responded that they "definitely plan to vote in the November presidential election" are included in these results. Some polls use Random Digit Dialing and then apply a series of questions to determine likelihood of voting. These questions may include whether the individual is registered (we already know our respondents are registered because they are pulled from lists of registered voters), interest in the outcome of the election, how closely they have followed the election, how often they have voted in the past, and others. We are concerned that any method that screens for, or more heavily weights, the responses of those who have previously voted will under-represent newly registered voters. While in most elections, newly registered voters make up so few of the electorate as to make this concern unwarranted, we believe that newly registered voters may play a pivotal role in the presidential election of 2008 and we chose a methodology that would ensure their inclusion.

For more information about "Undecided Voters" in the Senatorial races, click here

To see the full results of the Winthrop/ETV Poll click here

South Carolina ETV is the state's public educational broadcasting network with 11 television and eight radio transmitters, and a multi-media educational system in more than 2,500 schools, colleges, businesses and government agencies. Using television, radio and the web, SCETV's mission is to enrich lives by educating children, informing and connecting citizens, celebrating our culture and environment and instilling the joy of learning.

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For more information, contact Dana McCullough at (803) 737-3212 or dmccullough@scetv.org.